外文文献翻译译文

2024-11-08

外文文献翻译译文（共5篇）

1.外文文献翻译译文篇一

交通事故分析的可能性和局限性

S.Oppe 关键字：后果;目的;描述;限制;关注;事故分析;可能性

摘要：交通事故的统计数字，尤其国家一级的数据对监控和预测事故的发展，积极或消极检测事故的发展，以及对定义安全目标和评估工业安全特别有益。事故分析是应用非常有限的分析，是前瞻性分析和回顾性分析，能够对新开发的交通安全系统和特殊过程的安全措施进行评价。目前迫切需要一个将实时事故分析与研究相结合的行为。将自动检测和视频录制相结合的研究交通事故的科研论文会比较容易接受。这种类型的研究最终会对交通理念有个完善的认识。

1．简介

本文主要是基于个人的经验，研究有关交通安全、安全分析以及事故分析等在研究中的作用。由这些经验推导出的哲学思考就像通过研究和统计得出的实践观点。而这些调查数字已经在其他地方发表了。

在缺少直接观察的事故中，许多方法论问题的产生，导致不能直接测试对结果持续讨论。通过看事故视频来讨论是富有成效的。事实证明，用来解释事故的大部分有关信息就是事故中缺少的记录。深入研究还无法回忆起所有的必要的用来测试有关事故发生的假设数据。尤其是车-车相撞发生的车祸，这是在荷兰城市道路交叉口录制的视频，一辆从岔路驶来的汽车与主干路的汽车相撞，下列问题可以问：为什么汽车来自次干路上，突然加速后又几乎停止，撞上了在左侧主路的一辆汽车呢？为什么没有注意到正在驶来的车？是不是因为两车从右边驶来，司机因为前面的交叉为他们提供了可能性而斤斤计较？难道他向左看过，但他认为停在拐角处的绿色货车能让他停下来？当然，交通状况并不复杂。目前这个事故中没有骑自行车或行人在拥挤路口分散他的注意。如果停着的绿色车能够在五分钟内消失，这两辆车可能就不会相撞。在事故发生的相关条件下，几乎不可能观察下一个交通行为，因为交通事故是不可预见的。由于新的视频设备和自动检测事故设备的不断发展，如在收集数据方面不需要很高的成本就能变得越来越逼真。必要的增加数据类型也能更好的解释交通中存在的危险因素。关于事故分析的可能性和限制性的问题是不容易回答的，我们不能确切的分析交通事故。因为事故分析涵盖了每一个活动中的不同背景，并根据不同的信息来源范围来补充资料，特别是收集事故的数据，背景资料等，我们首先要看看在交通安全领域的活动周期然后再回答事故分析的可能性与限制。这些行为主要是与交通系统的安全管理有关，有些则是相关的研究活动。

应该用下面的步骤来加以区分： ——检测交通安全问题；

——描述问题和它的主要特征； ——分析其原因分析和改进建议； ——选择和执行安全措施； ——评价所采取的措施。

虽然这个周期可以由同一人或一群人做出来，而问题在每个阶段（政治/管理或科学）都有不同的背景。我们用事故分析来描述这一阶段。做这个决定是重要的。很多关于分析结果的方法的讨论由于忽视之间的区别而成为徒劳的。政治家或道路管理人员对道路的个别事故不是很留意。他们对事故的看法往往都是一视同仁，因为总的结果比整个事故中的每个人的因素重要。因此，每次事故看做一个个体，之间相互协调就会达成安全的结果。

研究人员研究事故发生时一连串事件中每个人的兴趣。希望从中得到关于每次事故的详细信息并能发现其发生的原因和有关的条件。政治家们希望只是因为细节决定行动。在最高一级事故总数减少。信息的主要来源是国家数据库及其统计学处理系统。对他来说，统计意外数字及其统计的波动来进行事故分析。这适用于事故分析中的交通安全领域。因此，我们将首先描述了事故的这些方面。2．事故的性质和它们的统计特性

事故基本概念是意外，不管是其发生的原因还是引起事故出现的过程。两个简单的假设通常是来描述交通事故的形成过程：

-事故发生的概率与以往发生的事故之间是独立；-事故发生在时间上是同性质的

如果这两个假设成立，那么事故是泊松分布。第一个假设与大多数的批判不符。事故是罕见的事件，因此不会受到以前事故的影响。在某些情况下，有一个直接的因果链（例如，大量的车开到一起）这一系列的事故被认为是一个个体事故但包含许多的车。这个假设并不适用于统计人员伤亡。伤亡人数往往与同一事故有关，因此，独立性假设不成立。第二个假设乍一看似乎不太容易理解。穿越空间或在不同地点发生的的事故同样具有可能性。然而，假设需要很长一段时间并且没有缓缴期。其性质是根据理论的假设。如果其短时间内能成立，那么它也适用于长时间，因为泊松分布变量的总和，即使他们的泊松率是不同的，但也属于泊松分布。对于这些时期的总和泊松率则等于为这些地方的泊松率的总和。假设与一个真正的情况相比较计数，无论是从一两个结果还是总情况来看都有一个基本情况比较符合。

例如，对比在一年中特定的一天例如下一天，下一个星期的一天发生的交通事故。如果条件是相同的（同一时间，交通情况相同，同样的天气条件等），那么由此产生的意外数字是相同的泊松过程的结果。这一假设可以通过估算进行测试的两个观测值的基础上（估计是两个值的平均值）的速度参数。概率理论能够

考虑到这两个观察值的平均，用于计算的平等假设的可能性。这是一个相当强大的统计过程。泊松假设是研究了很多次，来获得证据支持。它已经应用于许多情况，数的差异表明在安全性的差异然后确定是否发生意外。这一程序的主要目的是检测在安全分歧。这可能是一个时间上的差异，或不同的地方或不同的条件。这种差异可以指导改进的过程。由于主要关注的是，以减少意外的发生，这种分析可能导致对治疗中最有前途的领域。为这样一个测试应用程序的必要条件是，那意外的数字进行比较是大到足以证明存在的分歧。在许多地方情况下，一个应用程序是不可能的。事故黑点分析往往阻碍了这一限制，例如，如果应用这种测试，找出事故是否在特定的位置数是高于平均水平。该程序的描述，也可以使用，如果发生意外乃根据数的特点找到有前途的安全目标。不仅聚集，而且还与分类泊松假设成立，而意外数字可以相互测试的泊松假设的基础。这种测试是相当麻烦的，因为每个特定的情况下，每一个不同的泊松参数，即，对所有可能结果的概率必须计算应用测试。然后，泊松分布近似为正态分布，均值和方差等于泊松参数。一旦均值和方差的正态分布，给出了所有的测试可以改写了标准零均值和

方差的正态分布条件。没有任何更多的必要计算，但测试统计，需要利用表绘制。3.行车安全政策事故统计的应用

分析那些假设的基础上描述的测试程序的类型及其优点。这种应用最好的例子是为一个国家或地区进行超过一年的安全监测，用事故的总体数据（最终的特定类型，如死亡事故）与前几年的数据相比较。根据数年的事故序列，能够分析出它的发展趋势，并大致预测以后几年的事故数量。一旦建立了这样一种趋势，那么在误差范围内未来一年或几年都可以预见。从一个给定趋势的偏差也可以进行预测新的事件。最有名的是斯米德在1949年进行的分析。我们将讨论这个事故类型分析更详细的内容。

1、该测试应用推广到高阶分类。Foldvary和Lane（1974），在衡量强制佩戴安全带的效果，谁是最早应用于值的4路表高阶相互作用的总卡方分配的。

2、测试不局限于总体影响，但卡方值就可以分解模型内子假说。另外，在双向表，卡方总可以分解成零件表互动的作用。对1的优势。和2。比以前的情况是，这对许多相互关联的（子）表和相应的智广场卡方检验是由大量分析，取而代之的是一个一卡方的确切划分。

3、投入更多关注的是参数估计。例如，在卡方分割使人们有可能以测试有关行参数的线性或二次限制或趋势的不连续性。

4、分析的单位是从数到广义加权计数。这对于道路安全分析，那里一段时间，道路使用者的数量，地点或公里数的车辆往往是必要的修正有利。最后一个选项是没有发现在许多统计软件包。安徒生1977年给出了一个用于道路双向安全分析表的例子。工资保障运动的一个计算机程序。这一级没有说明事故原因分

析。它会尝试检测安全问题需要特别注意。所需的基本信息包括事故数字，来形容不安全总额，暴露的数据来计算风险，并找到一个高风险的情况下或（团体）道路使用者。

4.事故分析研究目的

交通安全的研究是有关的事故及其后果的发生。因此，人们可能会说，研究对象是意外。然而研究人员的兴趣较少集中在这个最后的结果本身，而是多在进程更多的结果（或不结果）的事故。因此，最好是把作为他的研究对象，在流量的重要事件。一个在交通意外的过程，结果是，该实际发生是由研究者未落观测研究的主要问题。

调查一宗交通意外，他将努力重建了间接来源的事件，如涉及的道路使用者，所提供的资料或目击者有关情况，车辆，道路和司机的特点。因此这不是科学独特的，也有一个间接的研究对象的研究更多的例子。但是，第二个困难是，该研究的对象不能被诱发。有系统的控制实验手段研究只对问题方面的可能，而不是问题本身。

间接观察和缺乏系统的控制组合使调查人员很难发现在什么情况下造成事故的因素。虽然研究人员主要是在事故处理领导有兴趣，他几乎完全信息的后果，它的产品，意外。此外，事故背景是复杂的。一般来说，可分为以下几个方面：

-考虑到交通系统，交通量和组成国家，道路使用者，他们的速度，天气条件下，路面情况，车辆，道路使用者和他们的相互作用的演习，意外可以或无法预防。

-由于发生事故，也对这样的速度和车辆质量的因素，大量的不同，碰撞角度，对道路使用者和他们的脆弱性，影响等位置的保护，伤害是严重或或多或少物质损失是多还是少可观。虽然这些方面不能独立研究从理论的角度看，它也从由此产生的结果的优势，区分交通情况有潜在危险的数字，是由有一个意外的可能性，在这种潜在的危险局势，给定一个特定事故。

这个概念框架是对风险的关于个别道路使用者，以及上级的决定控制器的决定制定的一般基础。在风险的数学公式，我们需要一个明确的概率空间的介绍，基本事件（的情况），可能导致事故组成，每个类型的事件的概率，最终收在一次事故中，最后的具体成果，损失，鉴于事故的类型。

另一种方法是看事故特征组合，然后找出关键因素。这种类型的事故分析是通过分析事故的共组或子群来开展。事故本身是一个研究的单位，但也要研究道路因素：道路位置，道路设计（如一个弯道）等。

原文出处：SWOV institute for road safety research Leidschendam（会议记录），记录者，S.Oppe.POSSIBILITIES AND LIMITATIONS OF ACCIDENT

ANALYSIS

S.Oppe Keyword：Consequences;purposes;describe;Limitations;concerned;Accident Analysis;possibilities Abstraet：Accident statistics, especially collected at a national level are particularly useful for the description, monitoring and prognosis of accident developments, the detection of positive and negative safety developments, the definition of safety targets and the(product)evaluation of long term and large scale safety measures.The application of accident analysis is strongly limited for problem analysis, prospective and retrospective safety analysis on newly developed traffic systems or safety measures, as well as for(process)evaluation of special short term and small scale safety measures.There is an urgent need for the analysis of accidents in real time, in combination with background behavioural research.Automatic incident detection, combined with video recording of accidents may soon result in financially acceptable research.This type of research may eventually lead to a better understanding of the concept of risk in traffic and to well-established theories.1.Introduction.This paper is primarily based on personal experience concerning traffic safety, safety research and the role of accidents analysis in this research.These experiences resulted in rather philosophical opinions as well as more practical viewpoints on research methodology and statistical analysis.A number of these findings are published already elsewhere.From this lack of direct observation of accidents, a number of methodological problems arise, leading to continuous discussions about the interpretation of findings that cannot be tested directly.For a fruitful discussion of these methodological problems it is very informative to look at a real accident on video.It then turns out that most of the relevant information used to explain the accident will be missing in the accident record.In-depth studies also cannot recollect all the data that is necessary in order to test hypotheses about the occurrence of the accident.For a particular car-car accident, that was recorded on video at an urban intersection in the Netherlands, between a car coming from a minor road, colliding with a car on the major road, the following questions could be asked:Why did the driver of the car coming from the minor road, suddenly accelerate after coming almost to a stop and hit the side of the car from the left at the main road? Why was the approaching car not noticed? Was it because the driver was preoccupied with the two cars coming from the right and the gap before them that offered him the possibility to cross? Did he look left before, but was his view possibly blocked by the green van parked at the corner? Certainly the traffic situation was not complicated.At the moment of the accident there were no 5

bicyclists or pedestrians present to distract his attention at the regularly overcrowded intersection.The parked green van disappeared within five minutes, the two other cars that may have been important left without a trace.It is hardly possible to observe traffic behaviour under the most relevant condition of an accident occurring, because accidents are very rare events, given the large number of trips.Given the new video equipment and the recent developments in automatic incident and accident detection, it becomes more and more realistic to collect such data at not too high costs.Additional to this type of data that is most essential for a good understanding of the risk increasing factors in traffic, it also important to look at normal traffic behaviour as a reference base.The question about the possibilities and limitations of accident analysis is not lightly answered.We cannot speak unambiguously about accident analysis.Accident analysis covers a whole range of activities, each originating from a different background and based on different sources of information: national data banks, additional information from other sources, specially collected accident data, behavioural background data etc.To answer the question about the possibilities and limitations, we first have to look at the cycle of activities in the area of traffic safety.Some of these activities are mainly concerned with the safety management of the traffic system, some others are primarily research activities.The following steps should be distinguished:description of the problem and its main characteristics;selection and implementation of safety measures;the probability of an accident to occur is independent from the occurrence of previous accidents;-the occurrence of accidents is homogeneous in time.If these two assumptions hold, then accidents are Poisson distributed.The first assumption does not meet much criticism.Accidents are rare events and therefore not easily influenced by previous accidents.In some cases where there is a direct causal chain(e.g., when a number of cars run into each other)the series of accidents may be regarded as one complicated accident with many cars involved.The assumption does not apply to casualties.Casualties are often related to the same accident and therefore the independency assumption does not hold.The second assumption seems less obvious at first sight.The occurrence of accidents through time or on different locations are not equally likely.However, the assumption need not hold over long time periods.It is a rather theoretical assumption in its nature.If it holds for short periods of time, then it also holds for long periods, because the sum of Poisson distributed variables, even if their Poisson rates are different, is also Poisson distributed.The Poisson rate for the sum of these periods is then equal to the sum of the Poisson rates for these parts.The assumption that really counts for a comparison of(composite)situations, is whether two outcomes from an aggregation of situations in time and/or space, have a comparable mix of basic situations.E.g., the comparison of the number of accidents on one particular day of the year, as compared to another day(the next day, or the same day of the next week etc.).If the conditions are assumed to be the same(same duration, same mix of traffic and situations, same weather conditions etc.)then the resulting numbers of accidents are the outcomes of the same Poisson process.This assumption can be tested by estimating the rate parameter on the basis of the two observed values(the estimate being the average of the two values).Probability theory can be used to compute the likelihood of the equality assumption, given the two observations and their mean.This statistical procedure is rather powerful.The Poisson assumption is investigated many times and turns out to be supported by a vast body of empirical evidence.It has been applied in numerous situations to find out whether differences in observed numbers of accidents suggest real differences in safety.The main purpose of this procedure is to detect differences in safety.This may be a difference over time, or between different places or between different conditions.Such differences may guide the process of improvement.Because the main concern is to reduce the 7

number of accidents, such an analysis may lead to the most promising areas for treatment.A necessary condition for the application of such a test is, that the numbers of accidents to be compared are large enough to show existing differences.In many local cases an application is not possible.Accident black-spot analysis is often hindered by this limitation, e.g., if such a test is applied to find out whether the number of accidents at a particular location is higher than average.The procedure described can also be used if the accidents are classified according to a number of characteristics to find promising safety targets.Not only with aggregation, but also with disaggregation the Poisson assumption holds, and the accident numbers can be tested against each other on the basis of the Poisson assumptions.Such a test is rather cumbersome, because for each particular case, i.e.for each different Poisson parameter, the probabilities for all possible outcomes must be computed to apply the test.In practice, this is not necessary when the numbers are large.Then the Poisson distribution can be approximated by a Normal distribution, with mean and variance equal to the Poisson parameter.Once the mean value and the variance of a Normal distribution are given, all tests can be rephrased in terms of the standard Normal distribution with zero mean and variance one.No computations are necessary any more, but test statistics can be drawn from tables.3.The use of accident statistics for traffic safety policy.The testing procedure described has its merits for those types of analysis that are based on the assumptions mentioned.The best example of such an application is the monitoring of safety for a country or region over a year, using the total number of accidents(eventually of a particular type, such as fatal accidents), in order to compare this number with the outcome of the year before.If sequences of accidents are given over several years, then trends in the developments can be detected and accident numbers predicted for following years.Once such a trend is established, then the value for the next year or years can be predicted, together with its error bounds.Deviations from a given trend can also be tested afterwards, and new actions planned.The most famous one is carried out by Smeed 1949.We will discuss this type of accident analysis in more detail later.1.The application of the Chi-square test for interaction is generalised to higher order classifications.Foldvary and Lane(1974), in measuring the effect of compulsory wearing of seat belts, were among the first who applied the partitioning of the total Chi-square in values for the higher order interactions of four-way tables.2.Tests are not restricted to overall effects, but Chi-square values can be decomposed regarding sub-hypotheses within the model.Also in the two-way table, the total Chisquare can be decomposed into interaction effects of part tables.The advantage of 1.and 2.over previous situations is, that large numbers of Chi-square tests on many interrelated(sub)tables and

corresponding Chi-squares were replaced by one analysis with an exact portioning of one Chi-square.3.More attention is put to parameter estimation.E.g., the partitioning of the Chi-square made it possible to test for linear or quadratic restraints on the row-parameters or for discontinuities in trends.4.The unit of analysis is generalised from counts to weighted counts.This is especially advantageous for road safety analyses, where corrections for period of time, number of road users, number of locations or number of vehicle kilometres is often necessary.The last option is not found in many statistical packages.Andersen 1977 gives an example for road safety analysis in a two-way table.A computer programme WPM, developed for this type of analysis of multi-way tables, is available at SWOV(see: De Leeuw and Oppe 1976).The accident analysis at this level is not explanatory.It tries to detect safety problems that need special attention.The basic information needed consists of accident numbers, to describe the total amount of unsafety, and exposure data to calculate risks and to find situations or(groups of)road users with a high level of risk.4.Accident analysis for research purposes.Traffic safety research is concerned with the occurrence of accidents and their consequences.Therefore, one might say that the object of research is the accident.The researchers interest however is less focused at this final outcome itself, but much more at the process that results(or does not result)in accidents.Therefore, it is better to regard the critical event in traffic as his object of study.One of the major problems in the study of the traffic process that results in accidents is, that the actual occurrence is hardly ever observed by the researcher.Investigating a traffic accident, he will try to reconstruct the event from indirect sources such as the information given by the road users involved, or by eye-witnesses, about the circumstances, the characteristics of the vehicles, the road and the drivers.As such this is not unique in science, there are more examples of an indirect study of the object of research.However, a second difficulty is, that the object of research cannot be evoked.Systematic research by means of controlled experiments is only possible for aspects of the problem, not for the problem itself.The combination of indirect observation and lack of systematic control make it very difficult for the investigator to detect which factors, under what circumstances cause an accident.Although the researcher is primarily interested in the process leading to accidents, he has almost exclusively information about the consequences, the product of it, the accident.Furthermore, the context of accidents is complicated.Generally speaking, the following aspects can be distinguished: Given an accident, also depending on a large number of factors, such as the speed and mass of vehicles, the collision angle, the protection of road users and their vulnerability, the location of impact etc., injuries are more or less severe or the material damage is more or less substantial.Although these aspects cannot be studied independently, from a theoretical point of view it has advantages to distinguish the number of situations in traffic that are potentially dangerous, from the probability of having an accident given such a potentially dangerous situation and also from the resulting outcome, given a particular accident.This conceptual framework is the general basis for the formulation of risk regarding the decisions of individual road users as well as the decisions of controllers at higher levels.In the mathematical formulation of risk we need an explicit description of our probability space, consisting of the elementary events(the situations)that may result in accidents, the probability for each type of event to end up in an accident, and finally the particular outcome, the loss, given that type of accident.A different approach is to look at combinations of accident characteristics, to find critical factors.This type of analysis may be carried out at the total group of accidents or at subgroups.The accident itself may be the unit of research, but also a road, a road location, a road design(e.g.a roundabout)etc.

2.外文文献翻译译文篇二

关键词：风险行为；资本监管；预期收入效应；在险资本效应

一、银行风险行为

银行风险行为主要有信用风险、市场风险、操作风险。

1.信用风险

Edward I. Alterman和Anthony Saunders对信用风险度量将近20年的戏剧化发展作了以下总结。（1）倒闭风险结构的的全球化。（2）各商行倾慕与高质量、大客户所带来的不协调性。（3）日益恶化的贷款边际利率竞争。（4）抵质押物市场价值的减少。（5）飞速增长的表外金融产品（包括金融衍生品）所带来的不可避免的违约风险。

在学术和业务实务上，随着宏观经济的变化、融资方式的进化特别是在贸易全球化背景的影响下，与之相对应的发展则有：（1）银行注重于开发一套全新的，更为成熟的风险评级和早期预警体系。（2）不再仅仅专注于单一贷款、证券等组合的信贷风险分析，而是将主要精力侧重于开发信用集中风险（组合风险？portfolio risk/integrated risk management），即整合信用风险体系。（3）开发信用风险定价模型，例如RAROC （Risk adjusted return on capital models）。（4）开发表外业务的信用风险度量模型。（5）在度量的基础上切分风险额度，并将风险予以转移和缓释。

2.操作风险

近年来，国外诸多学者和银行从业人员，对商业银行操作风险管理进行了研究和探索，探索的内容主要集中在操作风险的计量方面：David Porter系统地分析了审计数据分析、管理文化建设、减少金融犯罪等与防范操作风险的关系；Reimer Kuhn 和Peter Neu提出了基于VAR模型的银行操作风险资本金需求的计算方法；Elena Medova引入了极值理论（Extreme Value Theory，EVT），分析了极值理论在操作风险资本配置中的作用。

3.市场风险

1952年3月，Markowitz提出了均值—方差理论，即著名的资产选择理论。该理论的主要思想是众多的投资者在资本市场上的自由选择，会形成一个完全相同的最优风险资产组合。继Markowitz后，资产组合理论得以迅速发展。Sharpe（1964）等提出了资本资产定价模型（CAPM），成为风险定量分析的重要工具。

风险价值现已成为国际金融市场度量市场风险的主流方法。鲍莫尔最先提出了VaR思想，在对期望收益置信水平的投资组合选择模型的研究中获得明显效果。Philippe Jorion推出的著作中第一次系统介绍VaR的概念及其应用，他从金融衍生产品市场着手，全面讨论了VaR方法的数理统计基础、计算过程和应用途径。

随着VaR方法的逐步推广使用，它越来越频繁地出现在金融市场风险的度量方法里。Svend Jacobsen度量抵押债券的风险时尝试运用VaR模型。H.Jhomas等应用VaR方法衡量商业银行的资产负债表的整体风险，运用Delta方法计算VaR值以此度量了借贷方各项目的风险价值及其对整体风险价值的影响。pietro Penza和VipulK. Bansal系统介绍商业银行的风险管理，在其著作中涉及了VaR方法的计量、统计、监管的诸多方面。通过金融学家孜孜不倦地研究探索和金融机构在实践中地应用，推动VaR模型的不断发展成熟和逐步完善。Philippe Jorion经过对比研究美国主要的八大商业银行总计六年的季度和年度报告中的VaR值和交易组合的实际损益值，指出VaR方法能够合理预测实际的市场风险水平。

二资本监管对银行风险行为的影响

从1988年始，巴塞尔协议要求银行风险加权资产的水平维持在一定的水平之上。2004年又发布了《巴塞尔协议二》，最低资本要求已成为银行监管的国际准则。但资本监管对银行风险行为的影响目前仍没确定的结论。一方面，预期收入效应会刺激银行最求更高的风险，另一方面，在险资本效应迫使银行在投资时采取谨慎行为。

1.资本监管增加了银行的风险行为。Kohen & Santomero，Kim & Santomero认为，当对银行施加无差异的资本监管要求时，银行资产选择的均值-方差边界受到限制，进而被迫降低杠杆比率，重新配备风险资产组合。如此，银行就有可能在新的资产组合中增加更多的风险项目来补偿因为资本充足率限制而带来的效用损失，其后果是对银行施加无差异的资本监管要求时，会使银行去从事高风险项目。Rochet在一个均值方差框架下研究资本充足要求与银行风险的关系时，认为如果引入有限责任，在资本充足率限制下进行资产选择的银行。不是风险规避者，而是风险爱好者。在此种情况下，即使资本充足率水平是风险度量的，并且相应资产的风险权重反映市场风险，银行在资产选择中仍是偏好了过多的风险。Flannery的研究结果类似，资本充足要求导致更高的风险行为。Besanko & Kanatas，Boot & Greenbaum认为资本充足降低了监督的激励，这就可能导致银行资产组合质量的下降，增加了银行的风险。Blum构建了一个动态框架模型，研究发现资本充足要求增加了银行的风险。实证方面，Shrieves and Dahl首创性的提出了局部调整模型，在银行资本充足率与风险相互影响的前提下，采用联立方程模型，研究了当银行面临监管部门的资本监管约束时银行如何改变其资产组合，并且利用美国的银行数据进行实证研究，发现监管压力对银行资本充足率的提高有显著的作用。

2.资本监管降低了银行的风险行为。与Kohen &Santom ero等人则不同，Kahane，Karehen & Wallace，Sharpe等在完全市场以及无差异保费情况下分析了资本监管有效性，证明了资本监管可以有效预防银行在资产选择中的过度行为。Jacques and Nigro分析了银行资本、资产组合风险和以风险为基础的资本要求之间的关系，其实证结果表明监管压力是能够降低银行的资产组合风险的。Pyle，Hart& Jaffee也得出了类似的结论。Masaru Konishi & Yukihiro Yasuda的研究显示资本要求可能减少了银行的风险。Godlewski对发展中国家银行风险选择行为与资本充足性要求的关系进行研究，结果表明资本充足性要求对发展中国家银行体系的健康性很重要，同时法律法规基础的完善程度、监管制度的健全性等对银行风险选择行为也有积极的影响。Santos认为，当资本要求提高时，银行会根据自有资本的融资成本和机会成本调整为企业融资的合约，这样的调整会使得工商企业减少经营风险，反过来也降低了银行由于资不抵债而倒闭的风险。Dangl& Lehar在连续时间金融的结架下，提出了银行资产选择模型，并认为资本充足监管有益于更好地控制银行的资产组合选择，避免过度风险行为，同时认为资本充足率监管和政府日常性审查作为新巴塞尔协议6的头两大支柱具有较好的互补性，而Konishietal、Jacques and Nigro等以美国、日本以及对发展中国家的银行为样本，发现资本充足性监管降低了银行的风险承担。

3.资本监管对银行风险无影响。Furlong and Keeley利用期权定价模型证明当银行通过降低资本和增加风险以最大化存款保险的期权价值时，增加资本监管的要求并不会显著的增加银行的风险。Rim运用瑞士的银行数据的研究则表明尽管监管压力能够增加银行资本，却不会对银行的风险水平产生显著的影响。Christophe利用新兴市场国家的银行数据的研究也基本支持了这一观点。

三、述评

3.超声波测距外文翻译文献篇三

超声测距技术在工业现场、车辆导航、水声工程等领域都具有广泛的应用价值，目前已应用于物位测量、机器人自动导航以及空气中与水下的目标探测、识别、定位等场合。因此，深入研究超声的测距理论和方法具有重要的实践意义。为了进一步提高测距的精确度，满足工程人员对测量精度、测距量程和测距仪使用的要求，本文研制了一套基于单片机的便携式超声测距系统。随着技术的发展，人们生活水平的提高，城市发展建设加快，城市给排水系统也有较大展，其状况不断改善。但是，由于历史原因合成时间住的许多不可预见因素，城市给排水系统，特别是排水系统往往落后于城市建设。因此，经常出现开挖已经建设好的建筑设施来改造排水系统的现象。城市污水给人们带来了困扰，因此箱涵的排污疏通对大城市给排水系统污水处理，人们生活舒适显得非常重要。而设计研制箱涵排水疏通移动机器人的自动控制系统，保证机器人在箱涵中自由排污疏通，是箱涵排污疏通机器人的设计研制的核心部分。控制系统核心部分就是超声波测距仪的研制。因此，设计好的超声波测距仪就显得非常重要了。波测距原理

2.1 压电式超声波发生器原理压电式超声波发生器实际上是利用压电晶体的谐振来工作的。超声波发生器内部结构，它有两个压电晶片和一个共振板。当它的两极外加脉冲信号，其频率等于压电晶片的固有振荡频率时，压电晶片将会发生共振，并带动共振板振动，便产生超声波。反之，如果两电极间未外加电压，当共振板接收到超声波时，将压迫压电晶片作振动，将机械能转换为电信号，这时它就成为超声波接收器了。测量脉冲到达时间的传统方法是以拥有固定参数的接收信号开端为基础的。这个界限恰恰选于噪音水平之上，然而脉冲到达时间被定义为脉冲信号刚好超过界限的第一时刻。一个物体的脉冲强度很大程度上取决于这个物体的自然属性尺寸还有它与传感器的距离。进一步说，从脉冲起始点到刚好超过界限之间的时间段随着脉冲的强度而改变。结果，一种错误便出现了——两个拥有不同强度的脉冲在不同时间超过界限却在同一时间到达。强度较强的脉冲会比强度较弱的脉冲超过界限的时间早点，因此我们会认为强度较强的脉冲属于较近的物体。

2.2 声波测距原理

超声波发射器向某一方向发射超声波，在发射时刻的同时开始计时，超声波在空气中传播，途中碰到障碍物就立即返回来，超声波接收器收到反射波就立即停止计时。超声波在空气中的传播速度为 340m/s，根据计时器记录的时间 t，就可以计算出发射点距障碍物的距离s，即：s340t/2 3 波测距系统的电路设计

系统的特点是利用单片机控制超声波的发射和对超声波自发射至接收往返时间的计时，单片机选用 C51，经济易用，且片内有 4K 的 ROM，便于编程。

3.1 40kHz 脉冲的产生与超声波发射测距系统中的超声波传感器采用

UCM40 的压电陶瓷传感器，它的工作电压是40kHz 的脉冲信号，这由单片机执行下面程序来产生。puzel： mov 14h 12h；超声波发射持续 200mshere： cpl p1.0 ；输出 40kHz 方波 nop ； nop ； nop ； djnz 14h，here； ret 前方测距电路的输入端接单片机 P1.0 端口，单片机执行上面的程序后，在 P1.0端口输出一个 40kHz 的脉冲信号，经过三极管 T 放大，驱动超声波发射头 UCM40T，发出 40kHz 的脉冲超声波，且持续发射 200ms。右侧和左侧测距电路的输入端分别接 P1.1 和 P1.2 端口，工作原理与前方测距电路相同。

3.2 超声波的接收与处理

接收头采用与发射头配对的 UCM40R，将超声波调制脉冲变为交变电压信号，经 IC2运算放大器 IC1A 和 IC1B 两极放大后加至 IC2。是带有锁定环的音频译码集成块LM567，内部的压控振荡器的中心频率 f01/1.1R8C3，电容 C4 决定其锁定带宽。调节 R8 在发射的载频上，则 LM567 输入信号大于 25mV，输出端 8 脚由高电平跃变为低电平，作为中断请求信号，送至单片机处理.前方测距电路的输出端接单片机 INT0 端口，中断优先级最高，左、右测距电路的输出通过与门 IC3A 的输出接单片机 INT1 端口，同时单片机 P1.3 和 P1.4 接到 IC3A的输入端，中断源的识别由程序查询来处理，中断优先级为先右后左。部分源程序如下：receive1：push psw push acc clr ex1；关外部中断 1 jnb p1.1right；P1.1 引脚为 0转至右测距电路中断服务程序 jnb p1.2left；P1.2 引脚为 0转至左测距电路中断服务程序return： SETB EX1；开外部中断 1 pop acc pop psw retiright：...；右测距电路中断服务程序入口 ajmp returnleft：...；左测距电路中断服务程序入口 ajmp return 3.3 计算超声波传播时间

在启动发射电路的同时启动单片机内部的定时器 T0，利用定时器的计数功能记录超声波发射的时间和收到反射波的时间。当收到超声波反射波时，接收电路输出端产生一个负跳变，在 INT0 或 INT1 端产生一个中断请求信号，单片机响应外部中断请求，执行外部中断服务子程序，读取时间差，计算距离。其部分源程序如下：RECEIVE0： PUSH PSW PUSH ACC CLR EX0 ；关外部中断 0 MOV R7 TH0 ；读取时间值 MOV R6 TL0 CLR C MOV A R6 SUBB A 0BBH；计算时间差 MOV 31H A ；存储结果 MOV A R7 SUBB A 3CH MOV 30H A SETB EX0 ；开外部中断 0 POP ACC POP PSW RETI对于一个平坦的目标，距离测量包括两个阶段:粗糙的测量和精细测量。第一步：脉冲的传送产生一种简单的超声波。第二步：根据公式改变回波放大器的获得量直到回拨被检测到。第三步：检测两种回波的振幅与过零时间。第四步：设置回波放大器的所得来规格输出，假定是 3 伏。通过脉冲的周期设置下一个脉冲。根据第二部的数据设定时间窗。第五步：发射两串脉冲产生干扰波。测量过零时间与回波的振幅。如果逆向发生在回波中，决定要不通过在低气压插入振幅。第六步：通过公式计算距离 y。波测距系统的软件设计

软件分为两部分，主程序和中断服务程序。主程序完成初始化工作、各路超声波发射和接收顺序的控制。定时中断服务子程序完成三方向超声波的轮流发射，外部中断服务子程序主要完成时间值的读取、距离计算、结果的输出等工作。对所要求测量范围 30cm200cm 内的平面物体做了多次测量发现，其最大误差为0.5cm，且重复性好。可见基于单片机设计的超声波测距系统具有硬件结构简单、工作可靠、测量误差小等特点。因此，它不仅可用于移动机器人，还可用在其它检测系统中。思考：至于为什么接收不用晶体管做放大电路呢，因为放大倍数搞不好，集成放大电路，还带自动电平增益控制，放大倍数为 76dB，中心频率是 38k 到 40k，刚好是超声波传感器的谐振频率。

原文出处：传感器文摘布拉福德:1993年第13页摘要

Ultrasonic ranging technology has wide using worth in many fields，such as the industriallocale，vehicle navigation and sonar engineering．Now it has been used in level measurement，self-guided autonomous vehicles fieldwork robots automotive navigation，air and underwater targetdetection，identification，location and so on．So there is an important practicing meaning to learn theranging theory and ways deeply.To improve the precision of the ultrasonic ranging system in hand，satisfy the request of the engineering personnel for the ranging precision，the bound and the usage，aportable ultrasonic ranging system based on the single chip processor was developed 1.With the development of science and technology the improvement of peoplesstandard of living speeding up the development and construction of the city.urbandrainage system have greatly developed their situation is constantly improving.Howeverdue to historical reasons many unpredictable factors in the synthesis of her time the citydrainage system.In particular drainage system often lags behind urban construction.Therefore there are often good building excavation has been building facilities to upgradethe drainage system phenomenon.It brought to the city sewage and it is clear to the citysewage and drainage culvert in the sewage treatment system.comfort is very important topeoples lives.Mobile robots designed to clear the drainage culvert and the automaticcontrol system Free sewage culvert clear guarantee robot the robot is designed to clear theculvert sewage to the core.Control System is the core component of the development ofultrasonic range finder.Therefore it is very important to design a good ultrasonic rangefinder.2.A principle of ultrasonic distance measurement

2.1 The principle of piezoelectric ultrasonic generator Piezoelectric ultrasonic generator is the use of piezoelectric crystal resonators to work.Ultrasonic generator the internal structure as shown it has two piezoelectric chip and aresonance plate.When its two plus pulse signal the frequency equal to the intrinsicpiezoelectric oscillation frequency chip the chip will happen piezoelectric resonance andpromote the development of plate vibration resonance ultrasound is generated.Converselyif the two are not inter-electrode voltage when the board received ultrasonic resonance itwill be for vibration suppression of piezoelectric chip the mechanical energy is convertedto electrical signals then it becomes the ultrasonic receiver.The traditional way to determine the moment of the echos arrival is based onthresholding the received signal with a fixed reference.The threshold is chosen well abovethe noise level whereas the moment of arrival of an echo is defined as the first moment theecho signal surpasses that threshold.The intensity of an echo reflecting from an objectstrongly depends on the objects nature size and distance from the sensor.Further the timeinterval from the echos starting point to the moment when it surpasses the thresholdchanges with the intensity of the echo.As a consequence a considerable error may occurEven two echoes with different intensities arriving exactly at the same time will surpass thethreshold at different moments.The stronger one will surpass the threshold earlier than theweaker so it will be considered as belonging to a nearer object.2.2The principle of ultrasonic distance measurement Ultrasonic transmitter in a direction to launch ultrasound in the moment to launch thebeginning of time at the same time the spread of ultrasound in the air obstacles on his wayto return immediately the ultrasonic reflected wave received by the receiver immediatelystop the clock.Ultrasound in the air as the propagation velocity of 340m / s according tothe timer records the time t we can calculate the distance between the launch distancebarrier s that is: s 340t / 2 3.Ultrasonic Ranging System for the Second Circuit Design System is characterized by single-chip microcomputer to control the use of ultrasonictransmitter and ultrasonic receiver since the launch from time to time single-chip selectionof 8751 economic-to-use and the chip has 4K of ROM to facilitate programming.Circuitschematic diagram shown in Figure 2.Figure 1 circuit principle diagram